The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is one of the EU's oldest and financially most important policies. Its main objectives are: i) to increase agricultural productivity by promoting technical progress, rationalisation and the best possible use of the factors of production, in particular labour; ii) thus to ensure a fair standard of living for the agricultural community, in particular by increasing per capita income; iii) to stabilise markets; iv) to ensure the availability of supplies; and v) to ensure that consumers receive supplies at reasonable prices.
In order to meet these objectives in a changing environment, the CAP must continue to develop both in terms of content and funding. The Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics and Mining provides data and calculations on the effects of agricultural policies for the decision-making process.
Status of the project
In 2018, the following work steps were carried out in close coordination with the department:
- Preparation of a "status quo" of the income results of Austrian agriculture from the data of the accounting farms (data basis "Efile's" 2013-2017) with inclusion of a complete implementation of the regional model in order to be able to make statements on the effects of agricultural policy measures on (static) income changes according to farm types, regions, organic farms or conventional farms or, for example, for mountain farmer groups.
- Preparation of the INVEKOS data for static modelling of agricultural payments (in particular single farm payment and payments for disadvantaged areas) with regard to the effects of agricultural policy measures, also by farm types, regions, organic farms or conventional farms, or for groups of severely affected farmers.
- Simulation of different variants in the data set of accounting farms as well as in the INVEKOS data set (uniform regional model for the whole of Austria without compression factor for alpine pastures, cap-ping and/or redistribution of direct payments from the 1st pillar of the CAP).
First results were presented internally with the department, at the meeting of the GAP 2020+ closed session of the Presidents' Conference of the Chamber of Agriculture in Linz on 22 March 2018, at the Sectoral Committee of Agriculture and Forestry of the LWK Vienna on 23 May 2018, at the technical coordination meeting of the BML on 8 June 2018 and on 29 September 2018 at the Central Working Group for Cattle Breeding within the framework of Module 1 of the Young Breeders' Professional. The methodology of the calculations was presented at the XVI ERDN Conference from 17-19 September 2018 in Cluj-Napoca (Romania), at the 26th Pacioli Workshop in Budapest (Hungary) and at the International Scientific Conference of the Institute of Agricultural Economics on 13-14 December 2018 in Belgrade (Serbia).
In 2019, the following work steps were taken in close coordination with the department:
The individual farm accounts for 2018 of the farms voluntarily keeping accounts for the Green Report were linked to the INVEKOS data records (data on direct payments, area and livestock characteristics) and checked for plausibility. In the spreadsheet software "EXCEL" the individual farms were prepared in such a way that the results of different scenarios on direct payments for the CAP 2020+ can be calculated automatically at individual farm level.
The characteristics and evaluation groups to be evaluated within the framework of the projections were prepared in the "R" software and the "status quo" (income situation with direct payments in 2019) was calculated. Based on the projections of previous years, correction factors for income (without public funds) and expenditure from the years 2014 to 2018 were determined for all evaluation groups and linked to the projection results for the status quo in order to estimate an average income situation (mean 2014 to 2018).
The INVEKOS data set 2018 was processed in order to be able to make statements on different variants of cap-ping and redistribution payments as well as a possible alignment of direct payments of mountain pastures to the level of arable land and grassland.
For the SWOT analysis to be carried out as part of the CAP strategic plan, baseline data has been collected in the areas of i) general socio-economic context; ii) promoting sustainable farm incomes and crisis resilience across the Union to improve food security; iii) enhancing market orientation and competitiveness, including through a stronger focus on research, technology and digitalisation; iv) improving the position of farmers in the value chain; v) increasing the attractiveness for young farmers and facilitating business development in rural areas; vi) promoting employment, growth, social inclusion and local development in rural areas, including bioeconomy and sustainable forestry; vii) improving the nature of rural areas and facilitating business development in rural areas: (vi) promoting employment, growth, social inclusion and local development in rural areas, including the bioeconomy and sustainable forestry; (vii) improving the way EU agriculture meets societal expectations in the areas of nutrition and health, including safe, nutritious and sustainable food, food waste and animal welfare; and (viii) promoting and sharing knowledge, innovation and digitisation and fostering their dissemination to the BML. The results of the calculations from the accounting data as well as the INVEKOS data were made available to the technical departments in the department as well as at the meetings of the technical coordination rounds (on 1 Feb-ruary 2019, on 8 March 2019, on 9 April 2019, on 3 May 2019, on 28 June 2019, on 11 September 2019 as well as on 13 November 2019) on the CAP. Presentations were given at the Bau-ernbund local group Lasse (on 2 February 2019) and at the Bauernbund Bezirksbauernratskonfe-renz in Waidhofen an der Thaya (on 28 November 2019).
In 2020, the MFF and thus also the financial framework for the CAP in the period 2021-2027 were defined. In addition, the Council of Agriculture Ministers has taken a position on the content.
In 2020, the model based on the INVEKOS data for the analysis of various scenarios of possible redistribution payments and capping variants for the CAP 2020+ was updated to the current data status 2019. This dataset does not contain any capping and capping variants and is therefore highly suitable for future premium calculations. The flexibility of the analysis was extended with regard to different budget variants (eco-scheme, alpine pasture regions, etc.) and evaluation layers (three-digit farm types, groups according to alpine pasture area size). The model was used to calculate various model variants for the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (BML) and presented to experts in the context of CAP discussions. Particular attention was paid to the budgetary overview of the first and second pillars of the CAP.
In order to also evaluate the results in terms of the income situation of the farms, a processing of accounting evaluations (year 2019) was carried out on the effects of the "eco-scheme" and redistribution payments on farm types and size levels. Furthermore, a calculation of the income and expenditure factors was carried out in order to estimate the average income from production (excluding public funds) for a 5-year average for various evaluation groups. For the provision of data for the SWOT analysis, a recalculation and processing of the results for disadvantaged/non-disadvantaged areas and other, small and mountain areas was carried out.
In 2021, as planned, the calculations were continued and concretised in close coordination with the department. In particular, work was done for Section II of the CAP Strategic Plan and calculations were carried out on possible designs and their effects of measures in the first pillar of the CAP. The eco-scheme and the redistribution payment are mentioned here as notable examples. Reference is also made to other projects in the work programme of the Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics and Mining (BAB 036/20 Calculations of the compensatory allowance for disadvantaged areas, BAB 035/20 Calculation of premiums of the Agri-environmental Programme (ÖPUL) and Development of the organic market in Austria and other selected regions), which are strongly related to the CAP after 2020.
The calculations for the measures in the 1st and 2nd pillars of the CAP were carried out in consultation with the BML, documented and adjusted as necessary (in particular, requests from the Commission regarding the strategic plan). The results were presented in the political process as well as at events (e.g. of the Chambers of Agriculture).
Planned work 2023
The calculations for the measures in the 1st and 2nd pillar of the CAP were carried out in consultation with the BML, documented and adjusted if necessary (especially in response to questions from the Commission on the strategic plan). The results were presented in the political process as well as at events (e.g. of the Chambers of Agriculture).
Project start: 2018
Project end: 2023