Various measures of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) pursue objectives such as increasing the competitiveness of farms or promoting sustainable development and the efficient management of natural resources. The objectives and associated measures address and influence many different components and stakeholders of the entire agricultural, environmental and food system, such as farmers or natural resources like water, soil or air. The European ‘Green Deal’ with the Farm to Fork Strategy and the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 also illustrates that research topics at the interface between agriculture and the environment as well as systemic perspectives are becoming increasingly relevant when analysing complex interrelationships.
In order to further develop CAP measures, it is expedient to assess the effects of the measures (economic impacts, derivable environmental effects, etc.) as well as the reactions of the actors involved to these measures and other framework conditions (markets, climate, etc.). This requires a detailed and well-prepared database and knowledge of methods for model-based analyses
Objective
The overarching aim of this basic project is to create a model system, i.e. a framework for analyses of the effects of agricultural policy measures and other factors influencing the agricultural sector. The focus is on analyses of primarily economic research questions based on individual farm data. In order to take account of various developments, e.g. in agricultural policy or in the field of scientific analyses, and to exploit synergies with work in other projects, this basic project is subject to ongoing adjustments. For example, priorities and activities in the project are adapted as required in order to address the overarching goal of developing an analytical framework. The project pursues several sub-goals:
One aim of the project is to gradually develop a largely model-independent database on the basis of use cases. In the database, data on agricultural activities from different data sources (INVEKOS data, farm accounting data, data bases from contribution margin calculations, etc.) are to be merged and harmonised in order to make them usable for various quantitative methods and models (e.g. econometrics, mathematical programming, machine learning). In addition, information on agri-environmental measures (obligations, etc.) and relevant agri-environmental indicators will also be processed in this context.
A further aim of the project is to expand methodological competences through the application of suitable analysis methods and the development of models based on use cases, thereby building up methodological foundations in the long term (e.g. in the field of applied ecometrics). In this context, it is also necessary to analyse theoretical principles and underlying assumptions. Depending on suitability and possibility, methodological skills in systemic approaches should also be developed for the most comprehensive approach possible when working on research questions (e.g. systems scoping, identification and analysis of synergy effects or conflicting objectives).
Status of the project
The completed work includes, for example, a comparison of farms using efficiency analysis (Ortner et al., 2006; Kirner et al., 2007; Ortner, 2008) and the adaptation of the farm optimization model FAMOS of the University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (Schmid, 2004) for data of the bookkeeping farms and for the analysis of the effects of certain CAP reforms on Austrian agriculture (CAP reform 2003, milk quota regulation, Health Check; see the completed projects AWI/155/06 and AWI/160/07). In addition, methodological competencies for analyses with individual farm data were developed in the course of the project, particularly in the areas of mathematical programming and econometrics (model development, literature study, etc.).
The development of a model-independent database for analyzing the effects of agricultural policy measures or other influencing factors has begun.In this context, completed projects such as AWI/176/15 “ADAPT-CATMILK” and BAB 045/20 “COVID-19 Les-sons learnt” - work package 4 “Regional demand for intermediate inputs in the Austrian agricultural sector” should also be mentioned, the results and activities of which have been partially taken up in this project and are being continued on an ongoing basis.
Ongoing activities in this context include, in particular, the development of the database from numerous data sources (e.g. INVEKOS data, data from accounting farms, data bases from contribution margin calculations (see project BAB 015/10 “Contribution margins and data bases for farm planning” on the Interactive Contribution Margins, IDB), data from Statistics Austria, from the literature) and the consolidation and harmonization of data on defined agricultural activities across the respective data sources. In addition, a start has been made on preparing information on agri-environmental measures (e.g. ÖPUL obligations) for analyses using quantitative methods. A data catalog on agri-environmental topics is also being developed, in which various agri-environmental indicators are recorded and categorized.
In another part of the project, the results of theoretical models on spatial competition in markets such as the raw milk market (e.g. Tribl, 2012; Tribl and Salhofer, 2013; see also the completed project AWI/158/06) are examined in collaboration with the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU) using econometric models and data for e.g. Germany and Austria.The focus is on the analysis of the “yardstick of competition” hypothesis, according to which (in the context of competition between food processing companies) cooperative processors can weaken the market power of non-cooperative processors vis-à-vis farmers in such a “mixed market”.Initial empirical results on spatial competition between milk processors in a mixed market for southern Germany were presented at scientific conferences in 2017 and 2021 (see Tribl, Morawetz and Salhofer, 2017).Furthermore, together with the BOKU and the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) in Halle (Saale), a literature review on spatial economics was compiled and published in a scientific journal (see Graubner, Salhofer and Tribl, 2021).
Work 2025
Work on the database will continue in 2025. The three areas i) data harmonization (based on the agricultural activities defined in the IDB), ii) preparation of information on agri-environmental measures (CAP 2014-2020 and GSP 2023-2027) and iii) agri-environmental data catalog will be further developed.
In order to take methodological work in other projects into account and since a methodological limitation is necessary, the methodological focus in 2025 within the framework of this project should be on the development of econometric models that can also be used in the longer term to analyze certain research questions with appropriate adjustments.In doing so, research questions can be taken up for which there is already expertise in terms of content and for which synergies with other projects, e.g. evaluation (BAB 072/24 “Preparation, data management and evaluation of selected evaluation topics of the Austrian CAP Strategic Plan 2023-2027 and the Rural Development Program 2014-2020”), can be used in the best possible way.
Examples are: i) the relationship between agricultural policy measures and the competitiveness of farms, ii) determinants of farm decisions such as participation in agri-environmental measures and corresponding changes in farm management practices.
Publications in scientific journals are planned.
Where possible, further synergies are to be created with work in other projects by exchanging or utilizing results. Examples of this are the projects BAB 018/19 “Quantitative yields from organic farming”, BAB 003/86 “Economic studies and advice in connection with OECD and WTO”, BAB 056/22 “Systemic considerations in the agricultural, environmental and food sector” or BAB 040/20 “Biophysical processes of agricultural land use in Austria”. In addition, the interdepartmental working group “Methods and Modeling” was established at the BAB in 2024. In 2025, this working group will discuss methodological issues and coordinate activities in various projects with a stronger methodological focus.
The work on spatial competition in cooperation with BOKU is to be continued in 2025. It is planned to present the results of this work at further scientific events and to publish them in scientific journals.
