Initial situation
In the course of reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and with agricultural policy measures in general, certain objectives are pursued, such as the support of agricultural enterprises or sustainable resource management. Models can be used to estimate the effects of changes in agricultural policy framework conditions and measures as well as other influencing factors in the agricultural sector and to draw conclusions about their consequences. Depending on the question, an economic analysis (e.g. of the effects of agricultural policy measures) can be carried out at different levels (e.g. farm, regional or sector level). Examples of possible questions are land use and income effects, whereby statements on environmental effects can also be derived from the results under certain circumstances. The influence of other factors (e.g. climate change, price volatilities, market structures or competition in upstream or downstream sectors) can be taken into account in corresponding models or require an analysis with other models and methods.
Objective
The aim of the project is to develop a "model system" (i.e. different models and methods with possible model couplings and with the help of different data) in order to be able to analyse different economic questions. This is to be done within the framework of various project sub-areas.
Status of the project
Completed work includes, for example, a comparison of farms by means of efficiency analysis and the adaptation of the FAMOS farm optimisation model of the University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (Schmid, 2004) for data of accounting farms and for the analysis of the effects of certain reforms of the CAP on Austrian agriculture (CAP reform 2003, milk quota regulation, Health Check; see the completed projects AWI/155/06 and A-WI/160/07).
Work is currently underway in the following sub-areas:
For analyses such as possible economic effects of changes in agricultural policy measures or the influence of other factors (e.g. price volatilities) on farms, work has begun on the development of an optimisation model (method of mathematical programming) for use at a regional or individual farm level. Current activities in this context include, in particular, the development of the database (e.g. INVEKOS data, data from the bookkeeping farms, data bases from contribution margin calculations (see project BAB 015/10 "Contribution margins and data bases for farm planning" on the Interactive Contribution Margins, IDB), data from Statistics Austria, from the literature), the compilation of data on defined agricultural activities across the respective data sources (see also project BAB 045/20 "COVID-19 Lessons learnt" - work package 4 "Regional demand for intermediate inputs in Austrian agriculture"), the preparation of information on current agri-environmental measures for the model, literature research, further training (methodology, software packages such as e.g. GAMS, R, etc.). e.g. GAMS, R), the preparation of model documentation, etc.
An equally ongoing activity in a separate sub-area is the further development of index-based costs of agricultural production (INCAP; see projects AWI/176/15 and BAB 045/20 "COVID-19 Lessons learnt" - work package 4). INCAP prepares data from IDB and other data sources for simulation or optimisation models and is also to be incorporated into the database of the optimisation model mentioned earlier.
In another sub-area, the results of theoretical models of spatial competition in markets such as the raw milk market (e.g. Tribl, 2012; Tribl and Salhofer, 2013; see also the completed project AWI/158/06) will be tested in cooperation with the University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU) using econometric models and data for e.g. Germany and Austria. The focus is on the analysis of the "yardstick of competition" hypothesis, according to which (in the context of competition between food processing enterprises) cooperative processors can weaken the market power of non-cooperative processors vis-à-vis farmers in such a "mixed market". First empirical results on spatial competition between milk processors in a mixed market for Southern Germany were presented at scientific conferences in 2017 and 2021 (see Tribl, Morawetz and Salhofer, 2017). Furthermore, together with BOKU and the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) in Halle (Saale), a literature review on spatial economics was compiled and published in a scientific journal (see Graubner, Salhofer and Tribl, 2021).
Work in 2023
In 2023, work on the optimisation model and the corresponding database will be continued in order to be able to use the model for initial analyses, e.g. of changes in land use and income in the field of arable farming due to various influencing factors. In the course of this, the possibilities and consequences of a regional and those of a single-farm model approach will be considered.
If possible, results from other BAB projects should also be used for the optimisation model (and partly vice versa), e.g. of the projects AWI/54/16 W and BAB 018/19 "Quantity yields from organic farming", BAB 184/18 "CAP after 2020", BAB 040/20 "Biophysical processes of agricultural land use", BAB 045/20 "COVID-19 Lessons learnt" - work package 4 or BAB 015/10 "Contribution margins and data basis for farm planning". The possibilities of coupling the model with the model approach in project BAB 040/20 "Biophysical processes of agricultural land use" for a more comprehensive economic-ecological approach are to be examined.
If possible, results of other BAB projects should also be used for the optimisation model (and partly vice versa), e.g. of the projects AWI/54/16 W and BAB 018/19 "Quantity yields from organic farming", BAB 184/18 "CAP after 2020", BAB 040/20 "Biophysical processes of agricultural land use", BAB 045/20 "COVID-19 Lessons learnt" - work package 4 or BAB 015/10 "Contribution margins and data basis for farm planning". The possibilities of coupling the model with the model approach in project BAB 040/20 "Biophysical processes of agricultural land use" for a more comprehensive economic-ecological approach are to be examined.
The planned work on INCAP in 2023 concerns, for example, the addition of further agricultural activities, the programming of additional functions and updates with regard to the INCAP database and the INCAP programme code.
The work on spatial competition in cooperation with BOKU is to be continued in 2023. It is planned to present the results of this work at further scientific events and to publish them in scientific journals.
