The work in this research project is part of the DAFNE project ‘Evaluation of the medium-term availability of plant protection product active substances’, in which BAB is responsible for work package 4a, described in more detail below. For more comprehensive details on the entire project, see DAFNE.
The portfolio of plant protection product (PPP) active substances available in the European Union is currently undergoing massive change. While the number of approved active substances has remained roughly the same in recent years, there has been a shift from chemical active substances to microorganisms and other biological active substances, such as plant extracts and pheromones. The background to this development is the constant adaptation of testing methods to the state of the art in science and additional criteria for the approval of active substances (e.g. endocrine properties). This is also intended to support the goal of a sustainable food system within the framework of the European Commission's ‘Green Deal’.
Based on the currently established assessment methods, it is already to be expected that further chemical active substances will not be approved. In addition, it can be assumed that, as a result of further findings regarding possible negative effects on human health and the environment, individual active substances and even entire groups of active substances will lose their approval in the medium term. The loss of active substances and the plant protection products derived from them is leading to more and more gaps in pest control in agricultural practice in Austria (e.g. wireworms in potatoes) or the risk of resistance developing to remaining active substances.
The development of alternative procedures and methods is often time-consuming and difficult. An early assessment of the availability of active substances makes it possible to proactively close treatment gaps and develop alternative procedures and methods in good time.
Objective
As part of the project, an assessment will now be carried out, taking into account the currently valid evaluation criteria as well as already known future developments and requirements at European level, to determine which active substances may no longer be available in the medium term. After analysing the potential treatment gaps, possible alternatives will be discussed and evaluated in terms of state of the art, practicability and effectiveness, relevance for Austrian agriculture and the time horizon for future application and implementation.
Based on these findings, the BAB focuses on the economic assessment of PPP active ingredient losses at farm level and attempts to illustrate the economic impact (of alternative plant protection measures) at farm level using one or more selected crops as examples.
Planned procedure, implementation
The assessment of active substances that may no longer be available in the medium term (work package 1 – AGES) will be carried out by developing a set of criteria that take into account both the currently valid assessment requirements and possible future developments and changes at European level.
Based on this assessment, Work Package 2 (WP2 – AGES) will evaluate the resulting situation in plant protection. This will involve analysing how the limited availability of active substances affects the options available in plant protection. The assessment is carried out at the indication level (crop/pest combination) for selected main crops in arable farming, fruit growing and viticulture. The availability of chemical alternatives is determined with the help of the plant protection product register.
These results serve as the basis for the economic analysis in AP4a (BAB) to assess the impact of limited availability of active substances on agricultural businesses and to identify possible alternatives.
Work in 2026
The BAB work package covers the following aspects:
- Research: Preliminary work on modelling the (economic) effects of PPP active ingredient losses at farm level includes an exploratory literature review of agricultural and rural economics literature and establishing contact with other research institutions to explore the potential for synergies. Furthermore, the extent to which data on variety and plant protection trials is available and can be used for the project to better estimate the economic effects of active ingredient losses in terms of yield development (both quantitatively and qualitatively) will be examined.
- Transformation of the impact assessment: One challenge is to convert the qualitative assessment of PPP availability as a result of the loss of various active substances into concrete numerical values for use in modelling. The preliminary work from work packages 1 and 2 (see above) is central to the implementation of this step. In addition, an additional semi-quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of alternative plant protection methods by crop and type of effect (using various methods, e.g. fuzzy logic) should be considered, involving additional experts.
- Modelling: For a set of typical businesses (e.g. based on accounting firms), various scenarios are derived that represent different gradients of active ingredient loss. Based on this, static calculations are made for processes or model farms (e.g. farm estimates) in which the economic effects (e.g. yields and costs) of the adaptation measures are depicted. Based on local plant protection practices, this may include, for example, the substitution of active substances by combining plant protection products that are still authorised or switching to alternative plant protection measures (e.g. mechanical plant protection). The selection of relevant alternative measures is made in consultation with AP2.
- Quantification of economic effects: The economic assessment of the discontinuation of plant protection product active substances is based on as comprehensive an analysis as possible of changes in yields, direct costs and any special costs for long-term investments in specialised machinery. Depending on the data available, aggregation at a spatial level is conceivable. Dealing with the short- and long-term effects of active ingredient losses will be challenging. For example, it is possible that the costs of alternative plant protection measures will rise in the short term, but that more stable yields can be achieved in the long term.
Due to the prevailing uncertainties and dependencies on the results of previous work packages, this work should be regarded as a feasibility study, the findings of which can be used to extend the analysis to other crop types and indications.
Schedule
Project start: 08/2025
Project end: 12/2027
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