BAB 001/76: Econometric models of the Austrian pig and cattle market

Agricultural policy, administration and the EU institutions (EU Regulation 1165/2008) require information on the development of agricultural markets in order to fulfil their legal tasks. For this reason, the Federal Agency for Agricultural Economics and Mountain Farming has been producing forecasts on the supply of pigs and cattle for over 30 years. The forecasts for 2021 were also made using a regression model based on livestock census data. This method of market forecasting will continue to be used in 2026.
The recording of cattle stocks is based on Regulation (EC) No 1165/2008 concerning livestock and meat statistics. This was implemented nationally by Regulation BGBl. II No. 163/2012 of the Federal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management. The results for cattle stocks are derived from a cross-reference between an evaluation of the Central Cattle Database of Agrarmarkt Austria and data from Rinderzucht Austria, with detailed processing carried out by Statistics Austria.
In the pig sector, with the approval of EUROSTAT, the frequency of surveys was changed from three times a year to twice a year (1 June and 1 December). Since then, forecasts have been based on age projections from the two annual pig stock surveys on 1 June and 1 December, whereby, at the beginning of 2012, the respondent-based sample survey of the pig population for the reference date of 1 June was replaced by a population calculation using a regression model based on data from the April VIS survey. The regression coefficients and parameters used are continuously adjusted, taking this change into account.

Work in 2026

Based on the livestock surveys in December 2025 and June 2026, production forecasts for cattle and pig production (gross own production, expressed in numbers) will be prepared. The accuracy of the forecast models is continuously reviewed and the model parameters are adjusted accordingly. The forecasts are discussed in an advisory committee.

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